Why do members here think DL-based methods can't achieve AGI?

Not sure what you mean here. The cost of computing gradients with respect to parameters is only between 1x and 3x the cost of the original computational graph. Considering this is true no matter how big the graph is (ie how many parameters in the network, how many steps of recurrence, how difficult the underlying problem is) this isn’t “too expensive”, it’s linear with the original cost, with a small factor of overhead. Alternative approaches like Hebbian learning take orders of magnitude longer to converge, if at all.

The cost of modern deep learning has nothing to do with backprop, and everything to do with the number of training points that are required, both via large batches and many training steps. However, we don’t currently have any promising general-purpose methods that can learn faster, so we’re stuck with it for the time being.

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That is called policy iteration and is a basic principle of how DRL implements AlphaZero. Consider how people reacted to move 37 in the second game of AlphaGo vs Lee Sodol - it was thought to show creativity and beauty in the machine’s “thinking”. Updating systems online has been studied for decades, it is a hard problem, but there are methods like adaptive model predictive control that can be recast as DRL problems (this is what Yann LeCun is doing to some extent).

This is not clear to me. In pattern matching type approaches there is the possibility of one shot learning for a classifier. Consider an architecture like ART even when iterating it does not require the same amount of data as a gradient descent approach.

I don’t see how these things can be separated out - to use the method of gradient descent (i.e. backprop) requires a large amount of training. One iteration of backprop might be relatively cheap but the method assumes you will do many iterations, which makes it expensive.

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Good points. To be honest, I have had trouble finding comparisons between ART and gradient-based methods on tasks I’m familiar with. If you’ve got references for that, I’m all ears.

Regarding your second point, there is a difference between backpropagation—which is a method of efficiently computing exact error gradients of a function (ie applying the chain rule while caching the linearization points)—and the particular loss functions, optimizers, and architectures that make use of those error gradients. Disentangling these is important, because the latter set of concerns are the dominant factors determining data efficiency from my vantage, rather than backpropagation itself.

To be clear: SGD, RMSProp, and Adam are optimizers that use gradients, language modeling and adversarial objectives are loss functions for which you could compute gradients, and convnets, transformers, sparse graph networks are architectures that can be updated via gradient information. These are
the choices that can empirically dramatically change the number of steps needed to converge to good solutions.

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Here’s a great thread highlighting the sort of phenomenon I’m describing:

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I’m not aware of direct comparisons between ART and DL. For ART to do things that are at the typical scale of DL (e.g. image recognition) I think it would need to compare an architecture using ART e.g. the SMART architecture. Neurala probably has the data.

Thanks for the clarifications. My assumption is that backpropagation involves the propagation of the error (and the calculation of that error) i.e. it is of no use without an algorithm that iterates and the choice to use backprop limits the possible algorithms.

One way to think of a simple ART implementation would be as a two layer network with backpropagtion of an error, rather than a gradient. This allows for oneshot learning. Because different categories have different weights it does not suffer from the catastrophic forgetting of DL i.e. it can jump to an optimal weight value rather than slowly descend a gradient toward the optimal. This is an over-simplification.

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Just to point out, GPT4 need not have 100Trillion params (scaling laws estimate around 5-50T, assuming they hold) and that’s perfectly doable - inviting the “millionth of a manhattan project” fanatics which I sort-of agree upon; Nor does it require a “Supercomputer” in the traditional sense, as current supercomputers far far outperform the GPU clusters used at ClosedAI.

Also, OAI has expressly stated that GPT4 more likely will be only a little bigger - but trained properly on better data, better techniques etc.

you need not update all the weights (demonstrated by MoE style architectures) and sparing a couple of backward passes for some few shot supervised training would take milliseconds on a GPU cluster.

Mostly, I disagree with that. RL envs are often very simple, algos that are SOTA on some envs don’t outperform others, stochasticity make reproducibility a nightmare and all-in-all the field has devolved into a nightmare scenario. IMO RL is the furthest from AGI, and its lack of consistent results puts in an outlier category in a field that values results first and foremost.

If someone is interested in how transformers can also be applied to offline RL, check this out: [2201.12122] Can Wikipedia Help Offline Reinforcement Learning?

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Can you give an example of an RL algorithm that does not rely on online optimization? It does not matter if most implementations are not at the leading edge of research, it is the leading edge of the research that matters in terms of progress. That RL is outperformed by some algorithms on some tasks is not of much interest - nobody is claiming that RL outperforms all algorithms on all tasks. Monkeys outperform humans on some tasks - I doubt that makes you want to be a monkey?

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While I’ll be the first to agree and rant about RL having simple environments and very poor reproducability, I don’t understand how that leads to it being the furthest from AGI.

As far as I can tell (I’m in the early years of a PhD in RL)
RL seems to be the almost the only field with an embodied thing that makes decisions in space/time in an environment. It also seems like the only field seriously integrating online learning methods into the algorithms themselves. Both embodied and online seem essential, at least for my definition of AGI.

Sure, most models including my own use backprop (which I consider a serious problem), the required sample sizes are way too large, and unsupervised learning is almost certainly going to be an essential component. But I’m not aware of other major fields that are even working on the right problem. (Maybe evolutionary/genetic learning?)

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I am not sure what specific examples you want me to provide - offline RL is a vast topic with many papers on Arxiv, and the paper I linked above is also offline :man_shrugging:

Not to sound rude, but I don’t perceive anything I “like” or consider “essential” to guide me in distinguishing viability of methods. That said, RL’s intelligent behaviour is mostly by guessing a highly rewarding action and building upon it. Some work try and explicitly encourage curiosity and world modelling (Like Schmidhuber’s AAC) but whenever explicit comes up, I become wary - because the path then sooner or later edges on to subtly giving domain knowledge in pursuit of higher scores on the benchmark.

As much impressive Epsilon greedy strategies are, seeing anything learnt is just randomly encountering some action that leads to a reward and working on it doesn’t seem intelligent per se. They have no generalizability (though MCTS optimization methods maintain some) nor do they show intelligent behavior. Its less about being sample efficient, and more about understanding dynamics - which as I said world models move towards, but explicitly is a huge pitfall.

Transformers implicitly do a bit of meta-learning, generalization and understand some dynamics to an extent. They show a little reasoning behavior (better than traditional systems) but have a long way to go before achieving anything human-like. Yet they can perform more tasks, understand those same tasks better by using multiple modalities effectively (It seems everyday there is a new paper) and have uniform architecture, much like the brain.

There are some which argue that transformers may model like the brain as well, though that may as well just be a correlation due to the similarity of tasks…[https://twitter.com/JeanRemiKing/status/1496425017474695169, https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-022-03036-1]

Lastly, I don’t get the hype around online learning. Its not too difficult? few shot learning exists. even then, a couple of backward passes aren’t problematic. What the beef is; is beyond me. Fine tuning is such an old, tried and tested phenomenon.

True, there is the field of “offline RL” but an AGI is going to need to adapt and explore, so in this thread I don’t see the relevance.

At least keep the contradictions to separate paragraphs :wink:

Grossberg’s work on autonomous systems comes to mind. It depends what you mean by other major field, Grossberg’s approach is not a major field in and of itself but it fits within computational neuroscience.

Good luck with the PhD.

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well, if it helps explicitness is often associated with GOFAI methods, embedding knowledge bases in their agents and all sorts of other nasty tricks which are ambiguous, but I consider simply Cheating :wink:

I would prefer everything be built by scratch, meta-learning to its purest essence. :slight_smile:

Not necessarily, it doesn’t need to be online to reach its bootstrap phase - after which is can be easily deplyed in an online learning setting…

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I have not read anyone in this thread claiming that there should be no offline process. You seem to be debating this with someone who has not participated in the thread. That you now agree the online process is essential I think we are back on the main thread.

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Who’s your dissertation advisor? Just curious, I won’t tell them you are slumming on this board :wink:

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I personally don’t think DL is necessarily incapable of achieving AGI, but I do think that without some major breakthroughs in the field probably it won’t

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tbf, you could say that about literally every approach…

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Fair point

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One ‘major breakthrough’ is models (of the real world). DL + models might do it, but it’s not really DL any longer.

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World models, preferably ones with multiple components, are definitely something AI systems need.

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Sorry for bumping this dormant thread, but I’ve come to a certain conclusion about the section of comment.

The fact that these systems demand to be run on giant clusters of GPUs is the fundamental flaw with the whole system. You and I don’t need to run on GPUs, which points to (or should point to) that the foundational basis on which this is all composed is just the wrong approach, doomed to hit into energy walls while excluding anyone who isn’t made of billions of dollars with a spare nuclear plant to hook up to. (see recent interviews from Altman and Zuckerberg).

The whole approach of using perceptrons (artificial point neurons) as the foundational mathematical function of learning is just wrong… very useful, very powerful, and impressive… but wrong. Approaches that embrace sparsity and randomness, making peace with the patterns as they emerge from the inputs, will win out.

Think different. Think sparse, fuzzy, and compact. Think random. And think analog and mechanical.

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